Sept 20, 2024 – I should rename this page… Anyways, I hit 60,000 miles last week so that’s a major milestone I suppose. No new news regarding the car except the OEM tires were terrible in retrospect. They lasted 30,000 miles, but the Michelin CrossClimate2 tires have 30,000 miles on them and look almost new. Volkswagen is having problems. News of possible layoffs, plant closings, and low demand in China due to the rise of China EVs are all cited. Rivian got a $5b investment from VW, but their stock is back down to pre VW investment price of around $10-$13 a share. They still have the same problems, losing money, only 2 models, and the Model Y competitor still two years away from shipping. Tesla will sell a ton of Model Ys before they even ship the Rivian R2. The R2 will be successful, but can Rivian hold on until then? What will the competition look like in 2 years? The Y will be updated and refined. The real threat to the US EV market is from Chinese EVs which are as good or better than Teslas for significantly less money. 100% tariffs are the only reason they haven’t taken over the US market.
January 10, 2023 – The updated Model 3 was just released today, so you can order a RWD model for $38,990 and 272 miles or an AWD for $45,990 and 341 miles of range. Keep in mind you won’t get that range unless you keep your speed at 65 or below and who does that on the freeway?
I wouldn’t recommend getting an EV without a Tesla NACS charging plug. So until 2025 that is just a Tesla. The fast charging infrastructure is so insufficient in terms of number of fast charging stations, number of stalls, and functioning chargers that it will be a frustrating to nightmarish experience if you go on a road trip.
On Dec 22, 2023 I stopped to charge at Harris Ranch in Coalinga, Ca. I had never been there before due to the smell, but thought they might have some good deals on beef. They didn’t.
Harris Ranch Supercharger has 18 stalls at 150kW and half of the stalls were occupied when I got there. There are 6 fast chargers from Electrify America at Harris Ranch but there was a line 4 cars deep for each bank. There was a bank of 4 chargers and another with 2. Who would want to deal with that?
So before buying a non Tesla EV, please keep the state of fast charging infrastructure in mind. There are numerous videos on YouTube about the terrible state of non Tesla fast charging in the US.
“Los Angeles County has more public DC fast chargers for EVs than any other city in the U.S. The majority of non-Tesla electric vehicles have a CCS port that works at these charging stations as well. The problem? WSJ’s Joanna Stern hit up 30 EV charging locations in a Rivian R1T and found that 40% of them were broken. Here’s what’s being done to fix the EV charging mess.”
See the YouTube video: This Is the Biggest Problem With EV Adoption | WSJ
If you’re serious about buying a non Tesla EV, I highly recommend renting it on Turo or another app and drive it on a road trip of 700-1000 miles so you’ll have to charge on the road. This should give you a good idea of what it’s like to drive and charge a car you’re interested in.
Buy your EV used! – So my 2018 RWD Long Range Model 3 cost me $56,500 and then I got $10,000 back from the Feds, State, PG&E and CARB, so $46,500. I can sell the car for $25,000-$29,000 according to a search on craigslist, so about a 40% depreciation in 5 years and 54,000 miles.
How about 50% depreciation in 3 years and 20,000 miles? This seller paid $160,000 out the door and is selling his Taycan for $76,000 in Feb 2024! Ouch! Nice car but at $76,000, it’ll be $83,000 after taxes so probably better to get a brand new Model S. The 2020 model year had many problems and recalls. Look on reddit and other sites for more info.
I also predict that non Tesla EVs with a CCS plug will depreciate faster than EVs with the NACS plug. The used EV market will be segregated by which cars have a CCS plug and which ones have a NACS plug ultimately pushing down the price of the cars with the CCS plug. This will be a little confusing since depending on the model year, an EV might have a CCS plug or from MY 2025 on will probably have a NACS plug.
November 9, 2023 – Looking back on the over 5 years that I’ve owned this car, I am still convinced this is the best car ever. I replaced my tires at 31,000 miles for $1000, the 12v battery for $155, windshield wipers for $50, cabin air filter for $50, rotated the tires every 7000 miles $0. I have 52,000 miles on the car and have had no problems and that’s the only maintenance I’ve had to do. This is the recommended maintenance so I might take it in to Tesla to check the brake fluid, change the AC desiccant bag, and clean and lube the brake calipers.
The last 5 years have revealed the transition from ICE to EVs is not progressing quickly or smoothly. The initial rush to buy an EV has abated and now consumers are more careful. The CNBC video, “Why EV sales have slowed” has some good insights. I see several issues most of which were brought up in this video:
Prices are higher than an ICE car
Charging infrastructure for non Tesla cars is abysmal. One really bad charging experience that strands you or majorly inconveniences you can influence buyers in your social circle.
If you were planning on buying a Tesla, the prices fluctuate significantly, so buyers may be trying to time the market.
The $7500 tax rebate is more difficult to navigate than it should be. Do I qualify? Does the car qualify? How do I apply? What if I don’t owe over $7500 in tax? Can I roll it over t next year? What if I make over $150,000 a year?
There are many more EVs available now in November 2023 compared to June 2018 when I bought my Model 3, but sadly not any I would want to buy. Looking at sales figures, other buyers aren’t convinced either. The Ford Mach E looked promising, I even test drove it and thought it was okay. Unfortunately, it has had a really bad recall that needs to be resolved. “Bad” as in the car won’t move and to fix the battery needs to be removed. This is major surgery. The software update didn’t fix many of the cars having the problem. Sales were 2021-27k, 2022-39k, and 31k so far in 2023.
The Toyota bZ4x and Lexus RZ are over priced and under spec’d. 200 miles of range is really not enough, 300 miles is a minimum. Remember the Tesla killer Porsche Taycan and Audi e-tron GT? At $91,000 starting and 208 miles of range, the Porsche is not going to kill anything. Sales in 2020 were 4k, 2021 – 8k, 2022 – 7k, 2023 – 5k so far. The Taycan has seen its share of problems and recalls. I hate the name. Is it TIE KHAN? or TAY KHAN? I’ve heard it said both ways just like Macan. The Audi starts at $107,000 for 249 miles of range and neither is selling well with annual sales decreasing. Audi sold over 2000 e-tron GTs in 2022 and 2023 so not a lot of units. By contrast, Tesla sells around 200,000 Model Y’s, 200,000 Model 3’s, and 90,000 Model S’s every year.
In 2023, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagon, Kia, Hyundai all have several models available. Lucid, Polestar, Rivian etc also have a quality car or truck, but they are expensive and use a CCS Combo plug. Have you seen the Mercedes EVs? OMG, ugly and expensive.
BMWs EV line looks promising but they use a CCS combo plug and their value doesn’t look more compelling than a Tesla.
So the low unit sales is due to being over priced and under spec’d besides the insufficient charging infrastructure. I think styling is a major reason that no one talks about in the media.
The reluctance to deal with a dealer who is trying to gouge buyers with every add on and upgrade package they can is very real. I won’t buy from a dealer ever again. I did for my last car before my Model 3 and I had a terrible experience. The buying experience via the Tesla website and delivery center is smooth and pressure free.
The dread that Tesla owners feel about 2025 and beyond when all those non Tesla cars will be lining up at the superchargers now that they have all adopted the NACS plug except for Volkswagon, Porsche, and Audi, but I’m sure they will adopt it too.
The flip side of this dread is if I were going to buy a non Tesla EV, I would wait until 2025 so that I would have the NACS plug built in. This puts off all those purchases for 2 years. The real problem though is the CCS Combo fast charging network. It’s really disappointing that the non Tesla charging infrastructure is in such poor shape. How bad is it? Search on YouTube and read, “What makes EV charging stations fail?” Even 5 years ago I made it all the way to Maine and back across 30 states without getting stuck once. There are probably hundreds more super chargers here in the US so that trip will be even easier. The other charging companies just can’t get their act together which impacts EV sales. The manufacturers should have stepped up years ago to fix this problem. Instead, they are just adopting the NACS plug. I’d rather see more competition for charging stations since that might push down prices and increase convenience for all EV owners.
The mass migration to EVs is not going to happen in the next decade, even with gas prices at $6 unless all of the issues above get resolved.
Canon M Cameras 